Time Series • Time Series Regression Model
Time Series / Weighted Least Squares

Weighted Least Squares

Notes 5 Time Series Regression Model

Weighted least squares (WLS) is least squares in which each observation has its own weight. It is the usual tool when errors are independent (or treated as independent) but do not share one common variance: some y values are measured more precisely than others. High-precision observations get a higher weight; noisy observations get a lower weight.

Notes

Weighted Least Squares

Definition

Weighted least squares (WLS) is least squares in which each observation has its own weight. It is the usual tool when errors are independent (or treated as independent) but do not share one common variance: some y values are measured more precisely than others. High-precision observations get a higher weight; noisy observations get a lower weight.

Example

Annual regional demand might be more precisely recorded in later years than in early years with incomplete meters. WLS can down- weight the early, noisier years instead of treating every year as equally precise.

The WLS Criterion

WLS minimizes Σ wi (yi − ŷi)2

  • wi — weight for observation i (larger when that y is more precise)
  • yi — observed response
  • ŷi — fitted value from the weighted estimates

If all weights equal 1, WLS reduces to OLS. Weights are often taken as inversely proportional to an estimated variance. WLS does not automatically fix every heteroscedasticity problem: the weights must be reasonable, and leftover autocorrelation is a different issue (then think GLS or a time- series error model, not only WLS).

OLS vs WLS vs GLS

OLS WLS GLS
Main error concern Equal variance; independence Unequal variances (weights) General covariance, including correlation
Criterion Σ ei2 Σ wi ei2 Uses the full error covariance idea
Relation Equal-weight special case A special case of GLS when errors are uncorrelated but variances differ Broader; WLS is not the same as modelling lag-1 residual correlation

Exam-Oriented Key Points

  1. WLS down-weights noisy observations and up-weights precise ones.
  2. Minimize Σ wi(yi − ŷi)2.
  3. WLS is not identical to GLS: GLS also covers correlated errors.
  4. WLS does not solve every variance problem if weights are poor or residuals remain autocorrelated.